Part of me thinks Wales must be brilliant to play that badly and still win - but...
I think they are probably on that same downward curve Ireland just fell off - peaked too soon, key players too old, coaching staff no new ideas and other teams have worked them out - no new tricks.
Of course the All Blacks don't have many new tricks - but their old ones are good enough and they probably start 7+ points up because of the aura they have in refs minds. I'm not saying anyone is deliberately biased but marginal decisions get the 'it's the Blacks, they were probably too fast, not offside' factor.
I hate to say it but your numbering is probably right.
But let me dream for a week please.